Crude Oil Price Changes and Inflation: Evidence for Asia and the Pacific Economies

Inflation And Relative Price Dispersion: Evidence For Iran

Modeling and Forecasting Effects of Crude Oil Price Changes on the US and UK GDP

        This paper proposes a new forecasting model for investigating relationship between the price of crude oil, as an important energy source and GDP of the US, as the largest oil consumer, and the UK, as the oil producer. GMDH neural network and MLFF neural network approaches, which are both non-linear models, are employed to forecast GDP responses to the oil price changes. The resul...

Crude Oil Price Determinants

Based on monthly observations, I specify an econometric model capturing the driving forces behind the crude oil price series in recent years. A large set of covariates, such as supply and demand variables as well as futures market variables, is used to test the impact on the crude oil price. Current price movements are a result of scarce refining capacity and speculators betting on higher price...

Oil Price Shocks and Inflation

The historical record Figure 1 plots the price of oil relative to the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) together with the core PCEPI inflation rate. (Core measures of inflation exclude food and energy prices.) The figure shows that the price of oil jumped sharply twice in the 1970s, as did inflation. But this relationship appears to have deteriorated over the latter par...

Exchange Rate Arrangements among Sticky and Flexible Price Countries: Implications for Some Asia-pacific Economies

The present paper examines a two-country model, one with flexible wage and prices (which seems to characterize most high performance East Asian economies), and the other with sticky wage and prices. Wage and prices often “over-shoot” in the flexible wage economy. The impacts of fixed and floating exchange rage regime on the flexible wage economy is typically different. A fixed (floating) exchan...